Tigers 2006 Outlook

Besides my buddy Rob, the other big Tigers fan I know is my friend MTB (short for Mike the Barber). MTB was my barber when I lived in Michigan (even when I was living on the other side of the state in Grand Rapids), and I still try to stop by for a haircut on those rare occasions I venture up there to see family. Despite being a Yankees fan, Mike did a great job on my hair, though I’m sure there were times when he was tempted to give me an inverse Mohawk. Mike, if you’ve got a website I can link to, I’m happy to give you the plug.

Anyway, MTB will occasionally send me articles from Detroit press on Detroit sports, and the Tigers in particular. On the ones that get my attention, either because some brainless twit wrote it, or because of some comment Mike added, I’ll fire off a response. The other day, he sent me one about the Tiger signings of Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones. MTB indicated that he was feeling better about Farnsworth & Urbina being traded last year. I’ve previously indicated that I didn’t like the Percival signing last year, and thought they spent way too much on Ordonez. He also asked why the Yankees were down on Carl Pavano, while suggesting I should get a subscription to the NY Post. Below is my response. Note that the “Dave” mentioned is Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski:

“At this point, I’d have to agree with you about moving Urbina. It’s looking smarter each day. Plus you got a second baseman out of the deal. That may go down as one of Dave’s best deals. And if Dave knew he couldn’t keep Farnsworth, it was probably better in the long run, but it certainly seemed to be what initiated your second half slide last season.

Jones and Rogers, when we look back on this in 5-10 years, won’t be remembered. I think you’re right—they’re both stall tactics to allow other people to get ready. Just don’t get too cozy about Rogers being well liked. I don’t remember anyone (players, coaches, or fans) moaning about his departure after two years with the Yankees. That said, I think Maroth could very well be the one who benefits most from Rogers, as I think they’re pretty similar pitchers.

I’ve got my fingers crossed on Pavano. Outside of being hurt for most of the second half, I’m not sure where the problem is. He pitched as well as anyone during the first half. Can’t stand reading the Post. Just too much crap & hype in there. I want analysis, not pictures of where Jeter had dinner two nights ago.

I do still think you need to make a move offensively, because you’ve still got 3 DH/1B on the roster (Young, Shelton, Pena). I don’t think I’d move any of the outfielders unless you got one in return. You’ve got decent flexibility out there, as Logan can play CF or LF. Monroe can play LF or RF. I would really try to unload Young, as I wouldn’t try to re-sign him after this year. I also think you need to make a decision about who’s on first. I don’t think platooning Shelton & Pena is the answer, but I don’t think either one can play LF either (though both are probably better than Meat).

I don’t know if the Tigers have done enough to get you to .500. I think you’re still a little short, unless a couple of guys have breakout years. Right now, I’m seeing 79 or 80 wins, as I just don’t see the offense being that strong. We’ll see.”

I stand by those comments. MTB did forward some comments from another of his customers who agreed with the bulk of the comments, but felt the offense would be better, assuming fewer injuries than last season.

I’m trying to envision the lineup for the Tigers in 2006. As it stands, the starters are likely to be: C-Rodriguez, 1B-Shelton/Pena, 2B-Palanco, SS-Guillen, 3B-Inge, LF-Monroe, CF-Granderson, RF-Ordonez, DH-Dmitri Young (aka Meat). Right now, Nook Logan would be the 4th outfielder. I don’t think Shelton and Pena will platoon at 1B, but right now, who knows.

Now, if I was Jim Leyland, here’s my lineup:

SS Guillen =
2B Polanco --
1B Shelton =
DH Young =
LF Monroe =
RF Ordonez =
CF Granderson +
3B Inge =
C Rodriguez +

To be honest, I don’t think this is the best team the Tigers could put on the field. I’d rather have Pena at first and Shelton DH, with Meat’s ass on the bench (or banished to the hinterlands of Tampa Bay). But until we know which Pena shows up (the first half .160 hitter, or the second half .330 guy), Meat makes the best cleanup guy. If Pena keep playing like he did after his recall, I’d let him bat 3rd and Shelton 4th. I think Shelton’s bat is for real, which is why I want him hitting 3rd. Right now, he’s the best offensive player they’ve got. Monroe & Ordonez can be flipped depending on who’s on a roll. I’m just not convinced Mags has enough power in Comerica to warrant hitting 5th. If he can pick it up, you can move him up.

There’s no true leadoff guy (high OBP with speed). Pudge will never tolerate hitting 9th, which means you’ve got a guy with a .290 OBP last season hitting too high. Can Guillen keep his OBP around .360 or higher? If he can, he can lead off. But if he can’t, then what? I would move Granderson up there, but I’m not sure he’s going to steal much. If he’s not going to do that, I’d rather have him hitting lower, as he’s shown some good power. Logan’s fast enough, but his on-base is too low. Everyone who thinks Polanco will hit .330 again, please raise your hand. Now check yourself into a psych ward. If he hits .290, he MIGHT walk enough to stay in the 2 hole.

When I look at the lineup, Pudge and Granderson are the only guys I think will have better years in ’06 than in ’05. Mags might play more (a big maybe), but I’m not sure he does any better. I give Polanco a 12% chance of matching or beating his 2005 numbers. Pudge can improve if he’d bother to draw more than the 11 walks he did last year.

Bottom line is that since the park will keep them from hitting 200+ home runs as a team, they REALLY need to be more selective. They finished LAST in the AL in walks with 384. That number’s got to get over 450 while still hitting .270 if they want to get over that .500 hump, and since they have mainly the same players as they did last year, I’m not sure that’s going to happen. I do think the pitching will be better this year, but outside of Rogers & Jones, it’s still a relatively young group. The offense isn’t young. Most of ‘em are pretty established, and so is the tendency not to draw walks. If I was the batting coach, that would be my focus.

Alternate theories are welcome, but be ready to defend your opinions.